Baseball America’s “ideal roster” projection for the Dominican Republic reads like a fever dream for pitchers and a parade route for hitters. If this nine takes the field next March, you’re looking at a group with star power at every spot, thump in all quadrants, and enough athleticism to turn routine singles into crooked numbers. Layer in how these bats actually performed in 2025, and the case for “tournament favorite” moves from narrative to math.

Where we stand: We — the Sandlot Picks Team — love Team Dominican Republic as the top team in Pool D, and we’re expecting a strong run for Gold.

The Projected Nine (with 2025 production)

C — Yainer Díaz: Contact-first catcher who doesn’t have to sell out for power to beat you. In 2025, he posted 20 HR, .256 AVG, .701 OPS; 2.7 WAR—solid floor behind the plate, and more than enough pop in a DH-heavy era.

1B — Vladimir Guerrero Jr: The most electric hitter when he’s synced. 23 HR, .292 AVG, .848 OPS; 4.5 WAR in 2025, with the kind of plate coverage that makes in-tournament scouting reports feel pointless.

2B — Ketel Marte: Efficient damage up the middle of the field: 28 HR, .283 AVG, .893 OPS; 4.4 WAR in 2025. Switch-hitting, gap-to-gap power, and playoff-caliber poise.

SS — Jeremy Peña: The “glue” player whose 2025 was a genuine breakout at the plate: 17 HR, .304 AVG, .840 OPS; 5.6 WAR. Add plus instincts and steady hands at short, and he’s the perfect WBC table-setter/turner.

3B — José Ramírez: Relentless. 30 HR, .283 AVG, .863 OPS; 5.8 WAR in 2025, elite swing decisions, and baserunning that steals outs as often as it steals bases.

LF — Fernando Tatis Jr: Game-breaking athlete who still turned in a well-rounded year: 25 HR, .268 AVG, .814 OPS; 5.9 WAR. He changes fielding alignments just by stepping in.

CF — Julio Rodríguez: If “carry an offense for a week” was a stat, he’d lead it. 32 HR, .267 AVG, .798 OPS; 6.8 WAR in 2025, with late-inning electricity that travels.

RF — Juan Soto: The zone is his, not the pitcher’s. 43 HR, .263 AVG, .921 OPS; 6.2 WAR in 2025, with a swing/decision combo that keeps rallies alive even on his “quiet” days.

DH — Junior Caminero: The young thunderstick: 45 HR, .264 AVG, .846 OPS; 4.5 WAR in 2025. You can’t pitch around everyone; when they try, he punishes it.

The Math Behind the Mayhem

Stack these nine together and the 2025 ledger looks like a juggernaut: Total HR: 263; team AVG (mean of player AVGs): ~.275; team OPS (mean of player OPS): ~.836; total WAR: ~46.4 (≈ 5.2 WAR per player). In a tournament setting—short series, compact schedules—that level of bankable production compresses variance. You’re not hoping for one hot bat; you’re demanding at-bats that win expected value across the lineup, inning after inning.

What Makes This Lineup Different

1) No soft landings.

Most WBC lineups feature a star cluster at the top and air pockets at the bottom. The DR can conceivably run seven 5+ WAR bats from 2025 in a row. Miss in any quadrant and someone with 25–45 HR power is waiting.

2) Diverse run creation — with elite HR/OPS punch.

This isn’t a “three true outcomes” group stuck in one gear; it’s a multi-modal offense with premium impact. Guerrero Jr. and Ramírez can manufacture with two strikes. Peña and Marte keep rallies alive with contact and gap power. Rodríguez and Tatis Jr. pressure defenders and create extra 90s with speed. And the top-end thump is real: Soto (.921 OPS, 43 HR), Caminero (.846 OPS, 45 HR), Ramírez (.863 OPS, 30 HR), and Marte (.893 OPS, 28 HR) headline a unit that averaged ~.836 OPS across the nine. Add Guerrero Jr.’s high-contact thunder and Rodríguez’s 30+ homer pop and you get a lineup that can win with OPS or win with sequence—whichever the game state demands.

3) Defensive sanity.

It’s easy to get intoxicated by power totals, but this alignment can also convert contact into outs at premium spots: Peña at SS, Ramírez at 3B, Rodríguez in CF, Tatis Jr. in LF. In a tournament where one bad inning can send you home, that’s non-negotiable value supported by their 2025 WAR profiles.

Depth Check: A Bench of Superstars

If the projected nine is frightening, the bench might be scarier. Options like Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, O’Neil Cruz, Elly De La Cruz, and Geraldo Perdomo give the DR matchup nukes and positional flexibility. Need late-inning thump versus a righty? Devers changes the inning with one swing. Want length at short or a left-side cannon? O’Neil Cruz brings elite arm strength and light-tower power. Prefer speed/chaos? Elly De La Cruz can flip an inning with a steal or a missile to the gap. Perdomo offers glove-first stability and OBP to reset the top. And Machado remains a bankable at-bat with postseason-grade poise. In a compressed tournament, this depth wins days when one or two stars don’t have it.

The Favorite’s Burden

Being the heavyweight cuts both ways. Every opponent will throw their best two arms at this lineup, and WBC variance is real—one brilliant four-inning bulk outing can flip a pool. But when you compare 2025 performance across nine hitters, plus the star-studded bench, it narrows down the countries that can match the Dominican Republic’s combination of peak power, on-base skill, athletic defense, and depth. That’s why, on paper, we have Team DR atop Pool D—and we expect them to make a legitimate run for Gold.