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The Mets' top-6 lineup is hitting .869 OPS over their last five games against left-handers, and they'll face one tonight in Perez. Factor in New York's thin bullpen — just four rested arms with a 4.80 ERA — and the model projects 10.29 total runs against an 8.5 line.
Sale's 1.89 ERA meets a Boston lineup hitting .233/.659 at home, while the Braves carry a .776 road OPS into Fenway — both starters are suppressing runs at an elite clip, and the ML model's 7.18-run projection barely clears the posted total, making the Under 7.5 the cleanest number on the board tonight.
Joe Ryan's ERA nearly doubles on the road (3.95 vs. 2.15 at home), and Aaron Nola is letting hitters post .884 OPS against him — two starting pitchers the model sees as significantly underpriced by their respective totals. Both games project to run production the lines aren't accounting for.
Bradish surrenders a .948 OPS to right-handed bats and walks nearly five per nine innings, which is exactly the lineup Tampa brings to Camden Yards. The ML model projects 9.58 runs in that game, while Oakland gets Luis Castillo on the road with a 6.85 ERA against an Athletics offense that hits .267 at home.