MVP Math: Why Aaron Judge Edged Cal Raleigh — And What Voters Valued

Some MVP races feel like coronations. This one felt like calculus. Aaron Judge claimed his third MVP with a thunderous offensive season — a .331 batting average, 53 home runs, 114 RBIs, and a 1.144 OPS — while Cal Raleigh mounted a compelling, two-way case that blended elite power with singular defense at the sport’s most demanding position. When the ballots were counted, the trophy landed in Judge’s hands — and the conversation lit up across baseball.

The Winner’s Case: Judge’s Bat Was the Best Player in Baseball

Judge’s MVP resume screams value from every angle. A .331 average paired with 53 home runs is ultra-rare air in the modern game; stack on 114 RBIs and a 1.144 OPS and you get a season that bends game plans and scoreboards. Beyond the box score, his presence warps pitch selection for everyone behind him, stretches bullpens, and turns routine matchups into mismatches.

Even without quoting a wall of advanced metrics, it’s easy to see why voters leaned his way: Judge generated runs in bulk and in leverage, buoyed his club’s lineup every single series, and passed the eye test for an offense-first MVP profile with room to spare. The production wasn’t just loud; it was relentlessly consistent.

The Challenger: Cal Raleigh’s Two-Way Thunder

Here’s where the debate gets real. Cal Raleigh didn’t just keep pace — he authored a season that would win most years: a .247 average with 147 hits, 60 home runs, 125 RBIs, and 110 runs. That’s a 60-homer catcher anchoring an offense from a position that demands daily physical and mental strain. Offensive catchers usually trade bat for bruises; Raleigh refused the bargain.

And then there’s the defense — the part many critics felt got undervalued. Raleigh posted zero passed balls in the regular season, becoming the first qualified catcher in modern MLB history to do so. That’s not trivia; that’s run prevention in its purest form. It reflects elite receiving, game-calling, and focus across thousands of high-stress pitches. For pitchers, that kind of certainty alters pitch selection, unlocks breaking balls in the dirt, and lengthens at-bats in ways that never show up as gaudy counting stats.

How Voters Typically Weigh Value

MVP voting has always wrestled with the same question: how do you compare a hitter’s raw production to a catcher’s quieter — but constant — influence on run prevention? Corner sluggers tend to dominate rate and counting stats. Catchers spread value across framing, blocking, controlling the run game, shepherding pitching plans, and still need to hit enough to matter. On paper, Judge’s line makes the case in seconds. On the field, Raleigh’s value accumulates in inches: a smothered splitter here, a borderline strike there, a mound visit that changes a sequence.

In close years, the pendulum often swings toward the most dominant bat. It’s not anti-defense bias so much as a reflection of certainty: run creation is measured cleanly and comparably; catcher defense remains part science, part art — and voters vary in how much they trust the available models.

Judge vs. Raleigh: Where the Edges Lived

• Run Creation: Judge’s 1.144 OPS paired with a .331 average delivered impact in every game state. His ability to damage mistakes and punish quality pitches alike likely drove the margin. • Leverage: Middle-of-the-order bats are judged (no pun intended) on how often they tilt games late. Judge’s line supports that narrative. • Positional Scarcity & Durability: Raleigh’s 60 HR from the catcher spot is historic-tier thunder. Add the physical tax of catching and you have an argument that his offense should be graded on a curve — which many critics felt voters didn’t fully apply. • Run Prevention: The zero passed balls milestone is more than neat — it’s strategic freedom for an entire pitching staff. That’s value, even if it’s not as visible as a three-run blast.

Why Judge Still Won

The simplest answer: Judge’s bat cleared a bar that almost forces a voter’s hand. When a hitter posts both a top-shelf batting average and apex power with elite on-base and slugging, he doesn’t just lead; he separates. Even a historically clean defensive season from a catcher — paired with 60 homers! — can struggle to overcome a line as complete and efficient as Judge’s from April to September.

Think of it this way: Raleigh may have combined rare power with unprecedented security behind the plate. Judge, however, authored the kind of offensive year that moves outfielders back before the anthem. In a most-valuable conversation that often defaults to run creation in a tie, Judge’s bat provided the final nudge.

Respecting the Glove: What Raleigh’s Year Should Change

The takeaway shouldn’t be that defense doesn’t matter — it’s that our shared vocabulary for catcher value still lags. Zero passed balls for a qualified catcher should sit alongside 60 HR in the season’s headline. Pitchers expanding the zone in the dirt because they trust their backstop should be discussed with the same reverence as a 450-foot blast. The sport is getting better at quantifying framing, blocking, pop times, and sequencing value; the next step is letting those numbers speak as loudly as OPS in awards season.

Final Verdict

Aaron Judge’s third MVP is earned: .331 with 53 homers, 114 RBIs, and a 1.144 OPS is a masterpiece. Cal Raleigh’s season is era-defining: 60 HR, 125 RBIs, 110 runs, a .247 average — and a defensive line capped by zero passed balls that should reset how we talk about excellence at catcher. If the MVP is the player who most changes outcomes, Judge’s bat carried the vote. If the MVP is the player who most expands what’s possible at his position, Raleigh’s claim will echo for years.

The good news for baseball fans? We didn’t have a right answer so much as two great ones. Judge won the award. Raleigh won the argument that defense, when it’s perfect, belongs at the center of any MVP debate.